Donald Trump once famously boasted he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, and not lose supporters. For years that seemed true.

特朗普曾經以吹噓自己可以在第五大道殺人而不失去支持者聞名。多年來這似乎是真的。

But his latest actions – including the deployment of an ad hoc paramilitary force against protesters on avenues around the country – may have been too much.

但特朗普最近的所作所為可能太過分了。他在全國各地的大街上部署了一支準軍事部隊來對付抗議者。


Last Monday night, police and soldiers violently cleared protesters so Trump could walk from the White House to St John’s church for a photo opportunity. At that moment, Nolan Fuzzell had seen enough.

上周一晚上,警察和士兵暴力清除抗議者,以便特朗普能夠從白宮步行到圣約翰教堂拍照。那一刻,諾蘭·付澤爾已經看夠了。

Fuzzell is a table server at a restaurant in Lawrence, Kansas, and previously supported Trump. But after the photo stunt he tweeted: “Beginning to regret wearing all Trump gear on Election Day 2016. This is not right, on any level.”

付澤爾是堪薩斯州勞倫斯市一家餐廳的餐桌服務員,以前支持特朗普。但特朗普的擺拍事件之后,他在推特上說:“他開始后悔在2016年的選舉日穿了支持特朗普的全套裝備。在各種層面上這都是不對的?!?

So how did Trump lose supporters like Fuzzell, and are they gone for good?

那么特朗普是如何失去付澤爾這樣的支持者的呢?他們會永遠的離開特朗普嗎?



Trump adherents have had to boycott the reddest of American sports, professional football.

特朗普的追隨者們還不得不抵制美國最火的體育運動,職業橄欖球。



Among other things Trump has asked evangelical Christians, his staunchest allies, to overlook lurid descxtions of his sexual escapades, hush money paid to a porn actor and – with difficulty – the abandonment of vulnerable Christian communities in northern Syria.

除此之外特朗普還要求他最堅定的盟友福音派基督徒,不要理會那些關于他出軌、向色情明星支付封口費和放棄了敘利亞北部脆弱的基督教社區的駭人內容。

But the most difficult demand of Trump’s followers is unfolding now.

但是對特朗普追隨者最難的要求現在正在出現。

For years, activists on the right railed against the possibility of US military deployment within the country’s borders. A conspiracy theory about such a program – called “Jade Helm 15” – grew so adamant that in 2015 Texas senator Ted Cruz requested an explanation from the Pentagon. It was a figment of the fevered rightwing imagination.

多年以來,右翼活動人士都強烈反對在美國境內部署軍隊的可能性。一個關于“翡翠頭盔”項目(美國國內的一次軍事演習項目)的陰謀論,變的煞有介事,以至于在2015年的時候德州參議員特德·特魯茲要求五角大樓澄清此事。這次只是右翼狂熱分子想象力虛構的一次陰謀。

But now, under Trump, the American self-invasion is coming true: squads of troops from agencies that normally oversee prisons, borders and drug enforcement have taken to the streets, often with no identifying insignia, to tamp down protests and riots. This week, active-duty troops mustered outside Washington, awaiting Trump’s command.

但是現在在特朗普的領導之下,美國的自我入侵正在變成現實。來自執法機構的小隊部隊通常通常只負責監督監獄、邊境和緝毒工作。他們不帶任何識別標志,走上了街頭鎮壓抗議和騷亂。這周,現役部隊在華盛頓郊外集結,等候特朗普的命令。

The troop build-up alarmed Mattis, a retired marine general.

軍隊的集結使得退役將領馬蒂斯感到擔憂。

“Militarizing our response, as we witnessed in Washington DC, sets up a conflict – a false conflict – between the military and civilian society,” he wrote. “It erodes the moral ground that ensures a trusted bond between men and women in uniform and the society they are sworn to protect, and of which they themselves are a part.”

他寫道:“正如我們在華盛頓看到的那樣,軍事化反應在軍隊和平民之間造成了沖突——一場虛假的沖突。它侵蝕了在男女軍人和他們發誓要保護的社會之間建立信任紐帶的道德基礎,而他們自己也是這個社會的一部分?!?

All these circumstances have converged to chip away at Trump’s previously granite-hard base.

所有這些情況匯聚起來削弱了特朗普花崗巖般堅硬的選民基礎。

Fuzzell, the regretful waiter in Kansas, is not alone.

堪薩斯州后悔的服務員付澤爾并不是特例。

“If I were a Republican operative, I’d be concerned about some of these numbers,” said Natalie Jackson, director of research at the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI).

公共宗教研究所(PRRI)的主任娜塔莉·杰克遜說:“如果我是一名共和黨的選舉操盤手,我會關注其中的一些數字?!?


“That’s an all-time low,” Jackson said. In 2019 that rating had averaged 52%. “It’s statistically significant.”

杰克遜說:“47%是個歷史低點,2019年的平均支持率是52%,這在統計上意義重大?!?

Much of the drop may be because those non-degreed white voters – Trump’s hard core – have suffered mightily during the coronavirus outbreak.

下降的原因很可能是因為那些無大學學歷的白人選民——特朗普的核心選民——在新冠疫情爆發期間遭受了巨大的痛苦。

“They are more likely to work in the service industry, and are losing jobs at a higher rate, or going to work at a significant risk to their health,” Jackson said.

杰克遜說:“無大學學歷的白人選民更可能從事于服務業,他們更容易失業或者要冒著巨大的健康風險工作?!?

It’s difficult to know, yet, how the current civil unrest may affect Trump’s support. But the initial signs are not in his favor. PRRI researchers collected their information around the country between May 26 and 31. Midway through that span, protests reached an inflection point when rioters burned down the Minneapolis police’s third precinct building.

還很難知道目前的動亂會如何影響特朗普的支持率。但是最初的跡象對他不利。公共宗教研究所的研究人員收集了全國5月26日到31日的信息。在這期間的中間段,暴徒燒毀了明尼阿波利斯警局第三分局的大樓時,抗議活動到達了一個轉折點。

So the researchers, curious about the protests’ effect, divided their polling into pre- and post-precinct-burning samples. Among all Republicans, Jackson said, Trump’s favorability dropped a whopping 9% after the precinct fire, from 88% to 79%.

因此出于對抗議活動對支持率影響的好奇,研究人員把民調樣本分成了燒毀分局前和燒毀分局后。杰克遜說:“在共和黨人中,特朗普的支持率在燒毀分局后下降了9%之多,從88%下降到了79%?!?


Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, of Kentucky, said he didn’t want to “critique other people’s performances”.

肯塔基州參議院多數黨領袖麥康奈爾表示,他不想批評別人的表現。


Senator Mitt Romney, of Utah, said in a statement: “From the news clips I have seen, the protesters across from the White House were orderly and nonviolent. They should not have been removed by force and without warning, particularly when the apparent purpose was to stage a photo op.”

猶他州參議院羅姆尼在一份聲明中說:“從我看到的新聞片段中來看,白宮前面的示威者是井然有序和非暴力的。他們不應該在沒有被警告的情況下就被驅離,尤其是在驅除他們的明顯目的是去拍照的時候?!?

One voter, who requested anonymity due to threats, wrote in a message: “Considering how far right the Trumpublican party has moved, I’m now considered left.”

一名因怕威脅而要求匿名的投票者在一條信息中寫道:“考慮到特朗普的共和黨向右翼走了多遠,以至于我現在被認為是名左翼?!?

So he started a Facebook page, directly titled I Regret Voting for Donald Trump in 2016.

他在fb上開設了一個頁面,標題直接是“我為2016年投票給特朗普而感到后悔?!?

“Many are afraid of posting in public due to fears of being attacked by unforgiving people on the left,” the voter said.

他說:“還許多人因為害怕被不寬容的左翼人士攻擊而不敢公開發后悔貼?!?